STIR Review Discussion

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National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
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CWA # 598, 31 October 2021
STIR Review Discussion
Living with Risks: The Art and Science of Managing Public Risks

  STIR Team

Compiled and edited by Lokendra Sharma


From natural to industrial disasters, from epidemics to dangers posed by disruptive technologies, humans have been dealing with risks to life as well as property. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has brought the various dimensions of this risk into sharp relief. Addressing this issue, three famous Indian scientists with significant administrative experience — Prof VS Ramamurthy, Prof Dinesh Srivastava and Prof Shailesh Nayak — have penned together a manuscript entitled “Living with Risks: The Art and Science of Managing Public Risks”. The yet-to-be-published book is written for ‘the person on the road’, as Prof Ramamurthy puts it. Hence, numerous illustrative examples, anecdotes and figures are used to deliver the message of science-informed risk management more effectively. While the book devotes a significant portion to explain different kinds of disasters, it ends with important chapters on risk management and risk communication. 

As part of the Science, Technology and International Relations (STIR) programme activities at NIAS, we interact with the authors and discuss the manuscript. Below is an edited transcript of the discussion. 


Prof D Suba Chandran (DSC): The title of the manuscript - ‘Living with Risks’ undermines the significance of science in reducing risk. What’s the idea behind the title? 

Prof Shailesh Nayak (SN): Yes, that is a good observation. Science has progressed over the centuries. However, risks have continued to haunt us. But this doesn’t mean the intensity of risks has not come down. Today, thanks to science, we are better able to manage the pandemic, which if occurred a century back, would have killed much more people. But it is also true that the risks still remain despite the progress of science. Also, as we have mentioned in one of the chapters, even progress in science and technology (like AI) brings to the fore new kinds of disruptive risks. 

Since risks have definitely reduced, but have not been completely eliminated, humans would have to live with risks. Living with risks does not undermine the important of science, rather emboldens it; this is because science plays a active role in managing co-existence with risks.  

DSC: In the book’s contents, one thing that I found missing was a focus on indigenous knowledge systems. Would it not add value to have a specific chapter on that?

SN: While researching for the book, we only found limited evidence of traditional knowledge systems helping in risk management. In particular, we found that the indigenous people of Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal were able to decipher biological signs in the environment to predict and prepare for the 2004 Tsunami that killed lakhs of people in various Indian Ocean littoral countries. But other than that, the evidence was scant. Hence, we choose to not have an exclusive chapter on the same. 

Prof VS Ramamurthy (VSR): Adding to Prof Nayak’s points, I would say that many a times Indigenous knowledge systems get distorted by superstitions which have no basis in science. So, dealing with it scholarly becomes very tricky.  

Akriti Sharma (AS): In the chapter on natural disasters, you have mentioned disasters including wildfires, cyclones, tsunami, floods. The link of anthropogenic climate change with all these events has been very clear. So how ‘natural’ are these disasters?

SN: The ‘natural’ about these disasters is the conditions that play a role in their occurrence. The natural conditions are responsible for their origin. Climate change does not cause these disasters, instead it increases the frequency and intensity of the disasters.

AS: Compound extreme weather events are not being discussed in the chapter. They have been talked about in depth in the recent IPCC Report. Why is it not included?

SN: Yes, I agree. I think we have missed it. We will mention a paragraph on the same in the revised draft. Events like heatwaves, droughts and wildfires are of the same nature and they follow each other. At the same time, events of different nature have not been studied in depth. I think we need appropriate research to dig deeper into them. Also, if these events occur together then the risk is much higher. 

AS: When it comes to natural disasters, we cannot control them but we can prepare and survive them. While there have been some reductions, why have we not been able to limit the loss of life and damage to infrastructure completely?

SN: There are two aspects to this. First, information about an incoming cyclone isn’t enough. We need organizational structure to respond to it effectively. If you look at the case of India’s east coast, less people die because they are better prepared for the cyclone. On the other hand, on the west coast, more people die due to poor governance. Second is the awareness. While awareness has increased, cyclones continue to kill people because they ignore the warnings issued through various means. And while people are very careful with cyclones, they are not so careful with heavy rains, which also kills a lot of people. 

Prof Dinesh Kumar Srivastava (DKS): To add to Prof Nayak’s last point about heavy rains, a lot of casualties happen because many a times the mud houses collapse when rain falls at an angle and not vertically.  

Avishka Ashok (AA): I liked reading your chapter on epidemics and pandemics. Do you think the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is turning into an endemic episode?

VSR: The COVID-19 pandemic may remain with us for more than ten years. It is because of its endemic nature. When you go through a pandemic, develop vaccines, endemic nature of diseases is natural. Comparing with the previous pandemics, there is a good chance of COVID-19 also becoming an endemic disease. We may have on and off cases of the virus and people dying in parts of the world but it will not lead to another major global lockdown. Institutions and people’s work/life will continue to move ahead. Small pox is gone, it is no longer an endemic disease. But for COVID-19, we are uncertain.

DKS: It was not easy to eradicate small pox but it was manageable because we could target the host. The only host is human which could be taken care of. If you deny them a host, the disease can be defeated. In the case of the COVID-19 virus however, there are numerous hosts, all of whom cannot be vaccinated. But to qualify this, we may note that the current evidence indicates that the risk of animal to human transmission is very low. 

AA: Despite the numerous pandemics of the past, why do the governments of the world tend to be caught unaware every time there is an outbreak? We seem to be starting from the scratch with respect to spreading information to the public and dealing with risky and contagious diseases.

SN: It takes time. It took decades to defeat polio. If complete elimination is the end goal, we will be able to defeat a pandemic only after a long period of trials and errors. But by then another pandemic may take its place. 

In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists were able to respond quickly. The vaccines were ready in one year because there was a lot of work that had been done it advance. The research did not start from the scratch. A lot of science and production facilities were available before the pandemic began. Scientists and industries were able to work with each other and create vaccines to prevent a higher number of deaths. Unlike earlier times when the casualties caused by the disease continued for 3-4 years, the loss of life was contained more quickly. Of course, people misunderstood the gravity of the situation, considered the pandemic to have ended too soon and that led to the second wave. But when anything fails, one must look at it from three angles: Science, government and people’s response. These three aspects are interconnected. We, as humans, have a tendency to blame the government. But these are co-related factors which influence the success of the eradication of any given disease.

Vaishnavi Iyer: My question is regarding the chapter on industrial disasters. Would it not be useful to also look at evacuation efforts that differ within countries?

DKS: We initially did include differing responses within a country; however, we didn't want to indulge in political controversies or risk the same. Thus, we kept it simple and focused on scientific aspects.

Sukanya Bali: In the chapter on emerging technologies, you write: “Every time we hear the news of a helicopter crash in the northeastern regions of India, it pains us to think that the airship could have provided a safer option”. Can you please elaborate? 

VSR: In the 1930s Airbus was cheaper and was more popular. After the accident in 1937, the project was dropped. The airship we rejected at that time, maybe was a mistake. Airship might have proved much more useful than a helicopter in a geography like that in India’s Northeast. 

Rashmi Ramesh: The chapter on environmental disasters considers the likes of air and water pollution, land degradation and desertification, medical wastes, electronic wastes and plastic menace as ‘disasters.’ While these are undoubtedly big problems, can they be considered as disasters? How are disasters defined? Are there any time-related parameters associated?

VSR: The issues mentioned in the chapter are disastrous processes. We consider climate change as a disastrous process, and hence such processes are disasters. However, time-related parameters are left to one’s understanding and perceptions. A disaster can be for a day, a week, a year or even more. They lead to disastrous results, irrespective of the duration of the perception.

SN: Something is considered a ‘disaster’ when it affects human settlements. A disaster in remote, uninhabited areas is sometimes not even considered under the definition. In this regard, the kinds of events mentioned in the chapter are disasters, as they directly or indirectly affect lives and livelihood. With regards to the time period, yes, an event unfolding over a long period of time can also be considered as a disaster.

Lokendra Sharma: Reading the last two chapters on risk management and risk communication, respectively, gives me the impression that there is a bias against lay public, who are projected as emotional and incapable of scientific thinking. But one reason why lay people, especially the marginalized, resist the State is because the latter’s machinery often indulges in harassment and exploitation of the former. Establishing trust is therefore difficult. How can we have effective communication in such a scenario? 

VSR: It is a very complex issue, as it involves the state-society relationship. While it is true that on the one hand the lay people are not scientifically aware, on the other hand, scientists and government machinery has been rude to them. Our main message has been that communication should be two-way. We need an exchange, a dialogue with the people, and not one-way propaganda. Knowing the perception and beliefs of lay people is also very important. We are unsure whether this came out effectively in the last two chapters. 

SN: To add to Prof Ramamurthy’s point, if a hazard is a gradual process, or unfolding over the long term with no immediate manifestations, then it is even more difficult to communicate the risks involved. 

VSR: One solution that comes to my mind is that risk communication should start fairly early in one’s life – preferably during school. That may instill a better appreciation and understanding of risks involved in various processes and events in consonance with scientific principles. 


About the discussants: Prof D Suba Chandran is the Head of Science, Technology and International Relations programme as well as Dean of the School of Conflict and Security Studies at NIAS. Rashmi Ramesh, Akriti Sharma and Lokendra Sharma are PhD Scholars working with Prof Suba. Avishka Ashok and Vaishnavi Iyer are Research Associates at NIAS. Sukanya Bali is a PhD Scholar at OP Jindal Global University.
 

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